வங்காள விரிகுடாவில் மையம் கொண்டுள்ள சூறாவளியானது தற்போது முல்லைத்தீவிற்கு அருகாமையில் நகர்ந்து சென்றுள்ளது. இறுதியாக JTWC இனால் வெளியிடப்பட்ட சூறாவளி எச்சரிக்கை அறிவித்தலின்படி இன்று காலை முல்லைத்தீவிலிருந்து கிழக்காக சுமார் 100 கிலோமீற்றர் தொலைவில் நிலைகொண்டிருக்கு; எனவும், தொடர்ந்தும் தனது நிலையிலிருந்து மேற்கு திசையில் நகர்ந்து யாழ்ப்பாணத்தைக் கடக்கும் எனவும் குறிப்பிடப்பட்டுள்ளது.
WTIO31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 9.3N 82.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3N 82.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 9.5N 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 9.6N 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 9.7N 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 9.6N 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 82.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED, BUT IS
SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 041624Z METOP-A 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING SHEARED TO THE WEST WHILE DRY
AIR IS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE
AND TIGHT GROUPING OF FIXES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 041624Z ASCAT PASS, DEPICTING 35 TO 40
KNOTS, AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 01B IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW.
TC 01B CONTINUES TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. BY TAU 24,
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. ADDITIONALLY, TC 01B
WILL STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES
NORTHERN SRI LANKA AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. DUE TO A
SLIGHT SPREAD AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKERS, THE OFFICIAL JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.//
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